[Ferro-Aloys.com] Vale gears up to meet India’s iron ore demand as China’s steel output plateaus

Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta projects doubling sales to India as part of a long-term growth plan and announces US$ 12.95 billion investment in Carajás to boost iron ore and copper output.

Brazilian miner Vale is positioning itself to meet rising iron ore demand from India, a country expected to double its steel production by the end of the decade, according to chief executive Gustavo Pimenta, who spoke in an interview with Reuters.

Growing sales to India and other Asian markets are expected to offset stagnant demand from China, where steel output has flattened near 1 billion metric tons a year and could slightly decline in the coming years.

“India has 1.6 billion people, it has surpassed China, and it needs massive infrastructure investment — which means a lot of steel,” Pimenta said from Vale’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro.

India: the new growth engine

The CEO estimates that India’s steelmaking capacity could double to around 300 million tons within the next five to seven years.

Vale’s high-grade iron ore blends well with India’s lower-quality supply, creating strong synergy between the two markets.

“We bring quality to the Indian mix. As steel output doubles, we see a big growth opportunity,” Pimenta said.

India is expected to import nearly 10 million tons of Vale’s ore this year, up from almost none just a few years ago — still a small share compared with China, which accounts for about 60% of Vale’s total sales.

While China will remain the world’s largest steel producer, Vale expects output to remain steady or even decline slightly, contrasting sharply with India’s 12% annual growth rate.

Vale also forecasts higher demand from other Asian markets, with sales to Vietnam projected to reach 8 million tons in 2025, a sharp increase from previous years.

“Vale Day”: more copper, more iron, more confidence

A strong third-quarter performance, including 5% sales growth and the highest iron ore output since 2018, positions Vale ahead of its strategic update, to be presented on December 2 in New York during the annual “Vale Day” event.

Although Pimenta declined to disclose new production targets, he confirmed that the company will unveil projects to expand both iron ore and copper capacity within its Northern System operations in Brazil.

Among these initiatives is the “Novo Carajás” program, through which Vale plans to invest 70 billion reais (US$ 12.95 billion) by 2030. The project — now 80% complete — aims to boost annual iron ore output by 20 million tons and begin operations by late 2026.

“As we explore more of Carajás, we’re increasingly optimistic about its potential. At Vale Day, we’ll provide investors with more visibility and confidence,” Pimenta said.

Vale also aims to double its copper output by 2035, strengthening its role in the global supply chain for critical minerals essential to the energy transition.

Regaining global leadership

With these expansion plans, Vale expects to reclaim its title as the world’s largest iron ore producer this year, surpassing Rio Tinto, which took the lead after Vale’s Brumadinho dam disaster in 2019.

Outside Brazil, the company is considering selling its Thompson nickel mine in Canada, citing weak prices and rising competition from Indonesia.

“It’s an asset we struggled to bring to the cost level we wanted. We’re assessing if there’s a better owner,” Pimenta acknowledged.

The mine produced about 10,000 tons of nickel in 2024, roughly 6% of Vale’s total output.

Brazilian mining giant Vale is gearing up to meet rapidly rising iron ore demand from India, where steel production is projected to double by the end of the decade, according to CEO Gustavo Pimenta. With China’s steel output stabilizing near 1 billion metric tons annually, Vale is shifting focus toward India and emerging Asian markets to drive growth.

“India has 1.6 billion people and immense infrastructure needs, which means huge steel demand,” Pimenta told Reuters. He noted that India’s steel capacity could reach 300 million tons within seven years, creating strong demand for Vale’s high-grade ore, which blends well with India’s lower-quality supply. This year, India is set to import 10 million tons of Vale’s ore—up from nearly none just a few years ago—though still far behind China, which accounts for around 60% of Vale’s sales.

While China remains the world’s top steel producer, Vale expects its output to remain flat or slightly decline, contrasting sharply with India’s 12% annual growth rate. The miner also anticipates increased sales to other Asian nations, including Vietnam, which is projected to import 8 million tons in 2025, a major jump from recent years.

Following a strong third quarter marked by 5% sales growth and record iron ore output since 2018, Vale is preparing to unveil long-term growth strategies at its “Vale Day” investor event on December 2 in New York. Pimenta said the company will highlight expansion projects under its “Novo Carajás” program, which aims to boost annual iron ore capacity by 20 million tons by 2026 through a 70 billion reais ($12.95 billion) investment.

Vale also plans to double its copper output by 2035 and may sell its Thompson nickel mine in Canada, citing weak prices and rising Indonesian competition. With these initiatives, Vale aims to reclaim its position as the world’s top iron ore producer by year-end.

• [Editor:tianyawei]